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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It commonly acts as a kind of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct path: the skipper who oversaw the largest improvement is handed the prize. In reality, it creates an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or merely the biggest shock.

However the latest field is profoundly different. The list of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division winners fading and longtime underperformers improving collectively. Under an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in such a turbulent and entertaining season, he's up against several other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the ideal vote ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to showcase his special talent. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to create magic out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Almost every bet – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a normal season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But this is not a typical year!

The area where his candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term success. But he falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the leadership aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff cocktail of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. But Coen has pulled the entire group and everything together.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason setback caused the team wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.

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